Sat, Oct 14, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 2, Philadelphia Flyers 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 17 | 07 | 223 |
| PHI | 213 | 311 | 313 | 837 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:18PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 9:25WSHJakub VranaAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 18:58PHIScott LaughtonSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 3:15PHIWayne SimmondsPPGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 10:32PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–4
- P2 10:45WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: T.J. Oshie, Brooks Orpik · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 17:05PHIValtteri FilppulaAssists: Jordan Weal, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
- P3 8:28PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–6
- P3 9:45PHISean CouturierAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–7
- P3 15:23PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Brandon Manning, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–8
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:59PHIBrandon Manning: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:06WSHJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:05PHITravis Konecny: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:42WSHJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:33PHIRadko Gudas: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:33WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Wilson2:12
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Beagle – Chiasson – Smith-Pelly6:09
xG 0.05–0.08 (36%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky10:29
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Eller – Connolly – Wilson5:09
xG 0.03–0.11 (20%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Djoos12:46
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Orpik – Ness4:04
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
- Ness – Orlov12:00
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier12:08
xG 1.20–0.46 (72%)attempts 20–9goals 4–1
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal12:10
xG 0.57–0.14 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Laughton – Leier – Raffl10:14
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Weise – Konecny – Patrick12:21
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Hagg16:59
xG 0.66–0.26 (72%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Provorov16:02
xG 0.89–0.51 (63%)attempts 17–14goals 2–1
- Manning – Gudas12:30
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).