Sat, Oct 14, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 013 | 219 | 114 | 346 |
| PIT | 113 | 28 | 112 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:46PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 5:25FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 6:40PITGreg McKeggSHAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 8:30FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–2
- P2 13:36PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Olli Maatta, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–3
- P3 1:59PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Conor Sheary · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 6:18FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jamie McGinn · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:12FLAIan McCoshen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:43PITChad Ruhwedel: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:59PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:52PITCarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:35PITPatric Hornqvist: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:25PITRyan Reaves: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:53FLARadim Vrbata: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:23FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBrickley – Bjugstad – McCann6:42
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley4:52
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – Trocheck8:56
xG 0.48–0.54 (47%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov10:38
xG 0.34–0.57 (38%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson16:48
xG 1.32–0.81 (62%)attempts 21–21goals 0–2
- Petrovic – McCoshen10:25
xG 0.47–0.44 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad12:57
xG 0.29–0.68 (30%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Sheary11:25
xG 1.08–0.78 (58%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Hornqvist – Hagelin – Rowney2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Reaves – Kuhnhackl – Rowney4:53
xG 0.06–0.10 (37%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Hagelin – McKegg6:29
xG 0.33–0.62 (35%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Schultz14:17
xG 1.00–0.92 (52%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
- Maatta – Ruhwedel11:44
xG 0.75–0.66 (53%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin14:26
xG 0.68–0.66 (51%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).