Sat, Oct 14, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 1, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 04 | 08 | 111 | 123 |
| DAL | 014 | 214 | 18 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:24DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 19:59DALTyler SeguinPPGWGAssists: Devin Shore, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 1:26COLMatt DucheneAssists: Tyson Barrie, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 19:21DALEsa LindellENAssists: Devin Shore, Stephen Johns · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:06DALEsa Lindell: Holding2 min
- P1 12:06COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:24COLAlexander Kerfoot: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:58COLBlake Comeau: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:51COLNikita Zadorov: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:57DALMattias Janmark: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:46DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:56COLSven Andrighetto: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:59COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:59DALTyler Seguin: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:59COLPatrik Nemeth: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:46DALAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Landeskog – Compher7:33
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Andrighetto – MacKinnon – Rantanen8:00
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Duchene – Yakupov – Kerfoot7:52
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto7:29
xG 0.04–0.59 (6%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Zadorov11:10
xG 0.52–0.37 (58%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Johnson – Barrie4:43
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Barrie – Bigras5:04
xG 0.10–0.13 (42%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Pitlick – Faksa8:05
xG 0.80–0.16 (83%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Shore – Elie7:31
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Spezza – Ritchie – Janmark5:54
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin10:35
xG 0.19–0.30 (40%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Honka11:14
xG 1.05–0.22 (83%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Johns12:59
xG 0.37–0.22 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Methot – Klingberg11:38
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).