Sat, Oct 14, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 110 | 110 | 213 | 12 | 535 |
| MIN | 16 | 210 | 15 | 00 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:50MINEric StaalAssists: Chris Stewart, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 16:25CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 2:58MINTyler EnnisPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 5:07MINLandon FerraroAssists: Zack Mitchell · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 7:42CBJDavid SavardAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 1:42MINTyler EnnisPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 2:39CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Jack Johnson, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–4
- P3 16:23CBJJosh AndersonAssists: David Savard, Matt Calvert · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–4
- OT 0:47CBJAlexander WennbergGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:07MINChristoph Bertschy: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:26CBJZac Dalpe: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:18CBJCam Atkinson: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:01MINChristoph Bertschy: Holding2 min
- P3 1:19CBJScott Harrington: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:45MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Wennberg – Panarin15:16
xG 0.73–0.19 (79%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Dalpe – Sedlak – Bjorkstrand3:19
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Calvert – Bjorkstrand2:14
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Foligno – Calvert – Anderson3:03
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard11:34
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 2–1
- Jones – Werenski15:22
xG 0.36–0.28 (57%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Johnson – Jones3:43
xG 0.03–0.02 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Stewart – Eriksson Ek13:26
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 1–2
- Cullen – Winnik – Kunin11:30
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Ferraro – Mitchell – Bertschy3:38
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Koivu – Ennis – Zucker14:19
xG 0.39–0.53 (42%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Olofsson9:47
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba15:59
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Suter – Spurgeon20:24
xG 0.41–0.80 (34%)attempts 12–21goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).