Sat, Oct 14, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Ottawa Senators 6, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 211 | 110 | 310 | 631 |
| EDM | 011 | 019 | 16 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:09OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Tom Pyatt, Dion Phaneuf · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 9:31OTTDerick BrassardPPGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 3:36OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Kyle Turris, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 1:04OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Zack Smith, Mark Stone · Deflected, 0.26 xG4–0
- P3 3:43OTTChris WidemanPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Zack Smith · Slap, 0.05 xG5–0
- P3 8:34OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Mike Condon · Snap, 0.11 xG6–0
- P3 11:03EDMAdam LarssonAssists: Connor McDavid, Kailer Yamamoto · Slap, 0.03 xG6–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:48EDMMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:48OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:47EDMZack Kassian: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:26OTTMark Borowiecki: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:21OTTKyle Turris: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:01EDMZack Kassian: Interference2 min
- P2 17:17OTTBobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:52EDMMilan Lucic: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:46EDMEric Gryba: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:46EDMEric Gryba: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:43EDMDarnell Nurse: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:43OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:43EDMEric Gryba: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau5:19
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Dzingel7:16
xG 0.46–0.65 (42%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Pageau3:57
xG 0.10–0.34 (22%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Ryan – Brassard – Stone10:03
xG 0.10–0.49 (17%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClaesson – Chabot2:09
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Wideman5:13
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman2:46
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – McDavid – Yamamoto13:44
xG 1.76–0.69 (72%)attempts 28–11goals 0–2
- Jokinen – Strome – Slepyshev7:16
xG 0.61–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–0goals 0–0
- Lucic – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins7:09
xG 0.34–0.08 (82%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Letestu – Pakarinen – Khaira4:30
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse13:41
xG 1.62–0.08 (95%)attempts 27–5goals 0–0
- Gryba – Auvitu11:41
xG 0.70–0.34 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Larsson – Klefbom9:04
xG 0.34–0.61 (36%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).