Sat, Oct 14, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 211 | 28 | 527 |
| VAN | 112 | 04 | 113 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:37CGYMark GiordanoSHAssists: Freddie Hamilton, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 17:45VANDerek DorsettAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Michael Del Zotto · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 10:57CGYTravis HamonicAssists: Michael Frolik, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 17:59CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Johnny Gaudreau · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 10:14CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Jaromir Jagr, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 10:23VANBrock BoeserAssists: Sven Baertschi, Derrick Pouliot · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 11:11CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Slap, 0.02 xG5–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 6:05CGYSam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:25CGYFreddie Hamilton: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:14CGYMichael Stone: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:28CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 15:10CGYSam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:05VANErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:59VANDerrick Pouliot: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:59CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P2 7:14CGYTJ Brodie: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:11CGYTJ Brodie: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:11VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:11VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:42CGYMatt Bartkowski: Holding2 min
- P3 9:06VANHenrik Sedin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:55VANHenrik Sedin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:18VANSven Baertschi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Gaudreau – Monahan3:41
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Versteeg – Lazar – Bennett2:23
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Glass – Brouwer – Hamilton2:54
xG 0.02–0.14 (15%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Lazar2:34
xG 0.05–0.21 (18%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stone – Bartkowski5:56
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie11:45
xG 0.23–0.44 (34%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Giordano – Hamilton12:06
xG 0.36–0.83 (30%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurmistrov – Baertschi – Boeser2:44
xG 0.44–0.06 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Dorsett – Sutter – Granlund6:40
xG 0.46–0.20 (70%)attempts 10–4goals 0–2
- Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser7:02
xG 0.22–0.08 (72%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vanek5:05
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPouliot – Stecher11:28
xG 0.70–0.11 (87%)attempts 13–3goals 1–1
- Del Zotto – Tanev10:04
xG 0.70–0.43 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 1–2
- Gudbranson – Hutton7:46
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).