Sat, Oct 14, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Buffalo Sabres 2, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 110 | 07 | 18 | 225 |
| LAK | 010 | 111 | 39 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:45BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Jack Eichel, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 7:42LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty · Backhand, 0.36 xG1–1
- P3 7:09LAKTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Jake Muzzin, Oscar Fantenberg · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 9:06BUFJack EichelAssists: Evander Kane, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 18:00LAKDrew DoughtyPPGWGAssists: Alec Martinez, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 19:47LAKTanner PearsonENAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:28LAKJake Muzzin: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:56BUFJosh Gorges: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:02LAKAlex Iafallo: Holding2 min
- P3 3:01LAKAndy Andreoff: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:26BUFJack Eichel: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:56BUFEvander Kane: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLarsson – Griffith – Reinhart5:53
xG 0.21–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart2:19
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Pominville – Kane – Eichel4:27
xG 0.36–0.40 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Moulson – O'Reilly – Girgensons4:00
xG 0.03–0.13 (21%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Ristolainen19:46
xG 0.84–0.51 (62%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Gorges – McCabe11:21
xG 0.29–0.36 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Beaulieu – Tennyson13:39
xG 0.47–1.00 (32%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Andreoff – Shore11:02
xG 0.89–0.23 (79%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson11:01
xG 0.35–0.19 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo16:33
xG 0.68–0.69 (49%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Dowd – Brodzinski – Kempe8:17
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez15:41
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Folin – Fantenberg11:08
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort17:57
xG 0.86–1.08 (44%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).