Sat, Oct 14, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Islanders 3, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 110 | 14 | 323 |
| SJS | 112 | 013 | 016 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16SJSKevin LabancPPAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 17:02NYIAnders LeeAssists: Jordan Eberle, Adam Pelech · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 6:27NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Joshua Ho-Sang, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 18:10NYICal ClutterbuckENAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:45SJSJustin Braun: Interference2 min
- P1 4:04NYICalvin de Haan: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:04SJSMikkel Boedker: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:36SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:36NYIThomas Hickey: Embellishment2 min
- P3 5:27SJSJoakim Ryan: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Ladd – Bailey – Barzal9:44
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas7:52
xG 0.11–0.39 (22%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Chimera – Nelson – Ho-Sang9:49
xG 0.22–0.51 (31%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
- Eberle – Tavares – Lee10:42
xG 0.40–0.71 (36%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- de Haan – Pelech14:03
xG 0.50–0.75 (40%)attempts 15–17goals 2–0
- Hickey – Mayfield16:50
xG 0.27–0.66 (29%)attempts 11–23goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy16:06
xG 0.41–0.81 (34%)attempts 14–26goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Labanc13:04
xG 0.75–0.29 (72%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Couture – Hertl – Karlsson3:37
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Carpenter – Meier3:18
xG 0.21–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hansen – Boedker – Tierney3:50
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan17:28
xG 1.02–0.40 (72%)attempts 31–14goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun12:15
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Dillon – Heed11:42
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).