Sun, Oct 15, 2017·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Boston Bruins 1, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 05 | 010 | 17 | 122 |
| VGK | 04 | 214 | 18 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:38VGKAlex TuchUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 17:46VGKVadim ShipachyovGWGAssists: Alex Tuch, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 19:30BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 19:46VGKOscar LindbergENAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.50 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:22BOSSean Kuraly: Holding2 min
- P1 9:08VGKDavid Perron: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P1 19:41BOSZdeno Chara: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:59VGKBrad Hunt: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:07BOSSean Kuraly: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:12BOSKevan Miller: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:12VGKDavid Perron: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:07BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Nash
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Beleskey – Spooner – Vatrano5:25
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Schaller – Heinen6:10
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Bjork – DeBrusk9:31
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Marchand – Nash – Pastrnak8:53
xG 0.20–0.52 (28%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Miller – Carlo2:13
xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Miller – McAvoy8:00
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug2:54
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Perron – Eakin13:02
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Leipsic – Tuch – Shipachyov9:19
xG 0.65–0.27 (70%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Smith – Lindberg – Karlsson9:15
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Carrier – Bellemare – Nosek9:09
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Merrill13:39
xG 0.73–0.24 (75%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Sbisa – Schmidt13:07
xG 0.65–0.39 (63%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Miller – Hunt14:08
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).