Sun, Oct 15, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Buffalo Sabres 3, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 113 | 111 | 17 | 331 |
| ANA | 07 | 110 | 09 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26BUFJustin BaileyAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 15:50ANAChris WagnerSHAssists: Antoine Vermette, Josh Manson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 19:28BUFSam ReinhartGWGAssists: Benoit Pouliot · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 19:36BUFJohan LarssonENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.62 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:38BUFEvander Kane: Elbowing2 min
- P1 10:04ANARickard Rakell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:32BUFJosh Gorges: Holding2 min
- P1 19:51ANAAntoine Vermette: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:53BUFEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:51BUFEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:02ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Rakell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Kane – Eichel13:18
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Moulson – Josefson – Nolan4:17
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Larsson – Bailey7:05
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Girgensons – Reinhart12:20
xG 0.19–0.43 (31%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Tennyson12:32
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Gorges – McCabe10:49
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen16:39
xG 0.34–0.38 (47%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Perry – Ritchie11:33
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell14:19
xG 0.29–0.17 (62%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Boll – Kerdiles – Rasmussen2:34
xG 0.03–0.05 (34%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Grant – Wagner – Shaw7:50
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Megna8:29
xG 0.53–0.09 (86%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler2:17
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Fowler – Manson14:42
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).