Tue, Oct 17, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, New York Rangers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 212 | 111 | 19 | 11 | 533 |
| NYR | 010 | 38 | 114 | 00 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:43PITPhil KesselAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 13:30PITCarl HagelinAssists: Olli Maatta · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 6:02NYRDavid DesharnaisAssists: J.T. Miller, Kevin Shattenkirk · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 7:32NYRPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 8:32NYRJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Tony DeAngelo · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 18:01PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 8:00NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: David Desharnais, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 19:04PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–4
- OT 0:58PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:15PITGreg McKegg: Holding2 min
- P2 2:12NYRChris Kreider: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:31PITSidney Crosby: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 14:32PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:35PITCarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:19NYRChris Kreider: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:45NYRDavid Desharnais: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:52PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:52NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:11PITBryan Rust: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:11NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:03PITChad Ruhwedel: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Hagelin – McKegg7:28
xG 0.12–0.02 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Sheary9:07
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Malkin – Kessel – Rust10:02
xG 0.35–0.39 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Reaves – Kuhnhackl – Rowney2:52
xG 0.06–0.22 (20%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Cole – Schultz10:47
xG 0.67–0.71 (49%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Maatta – Ruhwedel11:57
xG 0.36–0.43 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin13:11
xG 0.18–0.59 (23%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Zuccarello – Zibanejad8:31
xG 0.65–0.20 (77%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Cracknell – Grabner – Buchnevich4:23
xG 0.34–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Kreider – Miller8:11
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Hayes – Fast – Vesey10:40
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Shattenkirk10:58
xG 0.53–0.28 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- McDonagh – DeAngelo11:37
xG 0.68–0.52 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Smith – Skjei10:42
xG 0.23–0.35 (39%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).