Tue, Oct 17, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 1, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 015 | 012 | 114 | 141 |
| PHI | 011 | 415 | 113 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:05PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 7:35PHIShayne GostisbehereGWGAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Robert Hagg · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 13:22PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 16:16PHIDale WeiseAssists: Nolan Patrick, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–4
- P3 16:10FLAJamie McGinnPPAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Radim Vrbata · Snap, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 18:23PHIValtteri FilppulaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.56 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:19FLANick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:10FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:31PHIAndrew MacDonald: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:50PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:01FLAMicheal Haley: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:10FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:10PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:43PHIBrandon Manning: Interference2 min
- P3 6:35FLARadim Vrbata: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:57PHIDale Weise: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:49PHIJakub Voracek: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:04PHIRobert Hagg: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – McCann – Tippett4:39
xG 0.33–0.02 (94%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Trocheck6:12
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Vrbata – Huberdeau – Barkov8:21
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Barkov – Tippett2:11
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson11:40
xG 0.74–0.49 (60%)attempts 12–14goals 0–2
- Petrovic – McCoshen13:43
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad12:28
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Konecny – Patrick8:54
xG 0.56–0.43 (56%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal8:18
xG 0.17–0.21 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier11:30
xG 0.53–0.58 (47%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Laughton – Leier – Raffl7:56
xG 0.19–0.45 (30%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas12:03
xG 0.59–0.47 (56%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Provorov11:02
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Hagg11:34
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).