Tue, Oct 17, 2017·Capital One Arena, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Washington Capitals 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 010 | 213 | 230 |
| WSH | 07 | 010 | 013 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 5:53TORConnor BrownGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P3 19:38TORNazem KadriENAssists: Morgan Rielly, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:50TORPatrick Marleau: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:11TORNazem Kadri: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 16:48WSHNathan Walker: Holding2 min
- P3 1:08WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:05TORTyler Bozak: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown8:51
xG 0.75–0.15 (83%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews14:11
xG 0.75–0.48 (61%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri10:25
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Moore – Martin – Marner7:29
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly15:37
xG 1.31–0.36 (78%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev17:36
xG 0.95–0.62 (60%)attempts 19–20goals 0–0
- Carrick – Rosen9:18
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Walker7:08
xG 0.04–0.16 (22%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Beagle – Connolly – Wilson3:24
xG 0.02–0.15 (13%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Vrana10:26
xG 0.46–0.62 (43%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Connolly – Graovac – Wilson2:35
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Orlov3:19
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Chorney – Djoos2:45
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Orlov – Bowey5:12
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).