Tue, Oct 17, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 1, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 16 | 07 | 121 |
| NSH | 07 | 314 | 113 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:09COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mikko Rantanen · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 7:07NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Filip Forsberg, Alexei Emelin · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 13:30NSHRoman JosiPPGWGAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–2
- P2 19:15NSHColton SissonsAssists: Craig Smith, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–3
- P3 4:08NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:09NSHPontus Aberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:28COLErik Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:35NSHColton Sissons: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:23NSHPontus Aberg: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:04COLMatt Duchene: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 13:11COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:53NSHRoman Josi: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:48NSHScott Hartnell: Delaying game2 min
- P2 18:27COLTyson Barrie: Holding2 min
- P2 19:15NSHColton Sissons: Charging2 min
- P3 8:03COLCarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:37COLNail Yakupov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestAndrighetto – MacKinnon – Rantanen5:13
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Jost3:58
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – Yakupov – Kerfoot5:53
xG 0.09–0.20 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Wilson – Landeskog – Compher5:33
xG 0.03–0.31 (9%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Lindholm6:43
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Barrie – Bigras5:18
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barberio3:50
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:45
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Smith – Sissons – Fiala10:01
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- McLeod – Watson – Gaudreau4:08
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Jarnkrok – Aberg7:39
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Subban11:12
xG 0.80–0.09 (90%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Josi – Ekholm12:16
xG 0.60–0.14 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm2:47
xG 0.06–0.12 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).