Tue, Oct 17, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 38 | 07 | 26 | 521 |
| EDM | 015 | 121 | 215 | 351 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:20CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 4:53CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 18:40CARElias LindholmPPAssists: Jordan Staal, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 17:11EDMMark LetestuPPAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.51 xG3–1
- P3 4:03CARJordan StaalSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 5:03EDMRyan StromePPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Kris Russell · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 8:06EDMMilan LucicAssists: Ryan Strome, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 10:36CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Jordan Staal, Justin Williams · Backhand, 0.12 xG5–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:16EDMKailer Yamamoto: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 4:08EDMPatrick Maroon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:18CARMarcus Kruger: Holding2 min
- P1 8:19CARJustin Faulk: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:54EDMZack Kassian: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:00CARTrevor Carrick: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:08EDMMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:33CARSebastian Aho: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 17:52CARHaydn Fleury: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:14CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:59EDMPatrick Maroon: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:24CARJeff Skinner: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Staal – Teravainen5:57
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 2–1
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Jooris6:34
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Rask – Lindholm – Aho3:08
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Ryan6:30
xG 0.04–0.36 (10%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrick – Fleury5:51
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Faulk – Slavin3:32
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Pesce – Fleury2:05
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Malone – Slepyshev5:31
xG 0.73–0.08 (91%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – McDavid – Yamamoto13:15
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Lucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Strome9:08
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 1–2
- Letestu – Kassian – Pakarinen3:27
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Auvitu11:41
xG 0.88–0.12 (88%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- Russell – Klefbom6:23
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Russell – Nurse5:24
xG 0.05–0.04 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).