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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 17, 2017·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise

Buffalo Sabres 4, Vegas Golden Knights 5 (OT)

Away

Buffalo Sabres

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Vegas Golden Knights

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.

VGK winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
BUF180731900434
VGK192121614531

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:24BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:15VGKOscar LindbergAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P2 6:40VGKAlex TuchAssists: Deryk Engelland, Brendan Leipsic · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P2 18:37VGKReilly SmithPPAssists: Brad Hunt, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
  5. P3 3:50VGKDavid PerronAssists: James Neal, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
  6. P3 10:00BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Evander Kane, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
  7. P3 18:02BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jason Pominville · Deflected, 0.20 xG3–4
  8. P3 19:51BUFEvander KaneAssists: Jack Eichel, Jason Pominville · Deflected, 0.17 xG4–4
  9. OT 3:52VGKDavid PerronGWGAssists: Luca Sbisa, James Neal · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 5:50VGKDavid Perron: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:11BUFBenoit Pouliot: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 10:20VGKCody Eakin: Holding2 min
  4. P2 2:48BUFJack Eichel: Holding2 min
  5. P2 9:35BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 13:56BUFJason Pominville: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
  7. P2 17:27BUFMarco Scandella: Slashing2 min · PPG
  8. P3 8:28VGKAlex Tuch: Slashing2 min · PPG
  9. P3 9:51VGKDeryk Engelland: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 16:15VGKReilly Smith: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VGK
46% to win54% to win
← BUF attackVGK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Eichel
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFVGK
34Shots on goal31
3.1Expected goals2.5
70Shot attempts61
33Faceoffs won31
5Power plays5
10Penalty minutes10
16Hits15
18Blocked shots17
5Giveaways6
9Takeaways17

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Buffalo Sabres

Forward lines

  1. bestOkposo – O'Reilly – Reinhart10:43

    xG 0.66–0.36 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1

  2. Pominville – Kane – Eichel9:46

    xG 0.50–0.31 (61%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1

  3. Pouliot – Larsson – Bailey5:08

    xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  4. Moulson – Nolan – Larsson4:02

    xG 0.02–0.06 (24%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestScandella – Ristolainen15:10

    xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0

  2. Gorges – McCabe10:24

    xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1

  3. Beaulieu – Tennyson10:38

    xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1

Vegas Golden Knights

Forward lines

  1. Smith – Lindberg – Karlsson8:57

    xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0

  2. Neal – Perron – Eakin11:49

    xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0

  3. Carrier – Bellemare – Nosek7:06

    xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0

  4. Leipsic – Tuch – Shipachyov5:57

    xG 0.19–0.43 (31%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMiller – Hunt10:26

    xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0

  2. Sbisa – Schmidt10:22

    xG 0.32–0.62 (34%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0

  3. Engelland – Merrill14:55

    xG 0.24–0.89 (21%)attempts 10–22goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VGK 2.5 xGBUF 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VGKBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 96/100 · #70 of 1271 this seasonSwing 2.09 · 9 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 37% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50VGK 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +42 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.

VGK winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (VGK − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).