Tue, Oct 17, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Montréal Canadiens 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 112 | 07 | 230 |
| SJS | 18 | 320 | 17 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Tomas Hertl, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 4:06MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 0:53SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Kevin Labanc, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 8:03SJSTomas HertlPPGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Logan Couture · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 10:37MTLShea WeberPPAssists: Victor Mete, Jonathan Drouin · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 13:24SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Tim Heed · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–4
- P3 19:17SJSJoe ThorntonENAssists: Logan Couture, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Slap, 0.67 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:14MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:06MTLCharles Hudon: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:02MTLAles Hemsky: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:58MTLPhillip Danault: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:11SJSJoonas Donskoi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:03SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:18MTLCharles Hudon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:56SJSJoakim Ryan: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:35SJSJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:55SJSJustin Braun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:10MTLJoe Morrow: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:15MTLTomas Plekanec: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:31SJSJannik Hansen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Mitchell – Galchenyuk4:12
xG 0.45–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Shaw – Danault – Hudon7:11
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Gallagher6:17
xG 0.09–0.22 (30%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Lehkonen – Drouin8:11
xG 0.25–0.48 (34%)attempts 11–3goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Alzner11:19
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Davidson – Morrow7:03
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Weber – Mete11:41
xG 0.09–0.44 (17%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Labanc9:10
xG 0.46–0.04 (92%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Couture – Hertl – Karlsson6:53
xG 0.49–0.12 (80%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Hansen – Donskoi – Carpenter7:40
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Boedker – Tierney – Meier8:06
xG 0.24–0.53 (31%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun9:50
xG 0.62–0.20 (75%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Burns – Ryan13:51
xG 0.83–0.54 (61%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Dillon – Heed10:13
xG 0.17–0.21 (44%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).