Wed, Oct 18, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 27 | 015 | 333 |
| TOR | 45 | 113 | 18 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:56TORNazem KadriAssists: Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 6:39TORZach HymanAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 12:10DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Nick Jensen · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 15:46TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P1 16:26TORConnor BrownGWGAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Andreas Borgman · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P2 7:02DETTomas TatarAssists: Dylan Larkin, Nick Jensen · Snap, 0.26 xG2–4
- P2 8:36DETJonathan EricssonAssists: Nick Jensen, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.01 xG3–4
- P2 12:57TORMorgan RiellyPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 16:52TORWilliam NylanderENAssists: Auston Matthews, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.64 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:09TORWilliam Nylander: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:09TORMitch Marner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:17DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:17TORZach Hyman: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 12:39DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:28TORJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
- P2 16:22DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar2:56
xG 0.38–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Tatar – Larkin9:13
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Helm – Frk6:04
xG 0.11–0.02 (82%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm2:35
xG 0.10–0.10 (49%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Ouellet9:43
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Daley – Ericsson13:59
xG 0.63–0.51 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Kronwall – Green13:19
xG 0.67–0.67 (50%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown8:38
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Fehr – Martin – Marner5:28
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews12:49
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri12:22
xG 0.49–0.60 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev13:42
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 2–1
- Gardiner – Rielly2:09
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Zaitsev2:08
xG 0.05–0.07 (42%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).