Wed, Oct 18, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 2, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 04 | 04 | 216 | 224 |
| STL | 19 | 217 | 27 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:46STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Robert Bortuzzo · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 5:59STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Jake Allen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 7:49STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 7:01STLKyle BrodziakAssists: Scottie Upshall, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P3 14:47CHIRichard PanikPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 16:07CHIRyan HartmanPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Brent Seabrook · Deflected, 0.36 xG2–4
- P3 19:08STLJaden SchwartzENAssists: Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:14CHIPatrick Sharp: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:14STLSammy Blais: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:37CHIArtem Anisimov: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:05CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:05STLPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:30CHIGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:41CHIDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:44STLMagnus Paajarvi: Holding2 min
- P3 7:14STLJoel Edmundson: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:21STLVladimir Sobotka: Holding2 min
- P3 14:40STLVladimir Sobotka: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 14:40STLVladimir Sobotka: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:40CHILance Bouma: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Panik – Saad7:06
xG 0.37–0.26 (58%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Bouma – Wingels – Hayden5:10
xG 0.03–0.24 (13%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Sharp – Anisimov – DeBrincat5:43
xG 0.14–0.38 (26%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Kane – Hartman – Schmaltz8:35
xG 0.16–0.44 (27%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Murphy – Kempny11:22
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Forsling – Rutta10:18
xG 0.25–0.43 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook9:00
xG 0.32–0.75 (30%)attempts 14–10goals 0–3
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Tarasenko8:00
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Jaskin4:10
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Blais6:57
xG 0.28–0.24 (53%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Paajarvi – Barbashev6:18
xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn8:32
xG 0.45–0.03 (93%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Parayko10:10
xG 0.71–0.55 (56%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo9:13
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).