Skip to content
Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 19, 2017·TD Garden, Boston

Vancouver Canucks 3, Boston Bruins 6

Away

Vancouver Canucks

3

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 87% of the time.

BOS winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN1829012329
BOS41817110635

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:58VANDerek DorsettAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P1 3:29BOSAnders BjorkAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
  3. P1 9:03BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Anton Khudobin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
  4. P1 9:26BOSAnders BjorkPPAssists: David Krejci, Charlie McAvoy · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
  5. P1 10:40BOSDavid KrejciPPGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Kenny Agostino · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
  6. P2 10:05BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Anders Bjork, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
  7. P2 16:06VANThomas VanekPPAssists: Sam Gagner, Michael Del Zotto · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–5
  8. P2 16:40VANBo HorvatAssists: Sven Baertschi, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–5
  9. P3 11:53BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–6
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 0:34BOSCharlie McAvoy: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 6:13VANErik Gudbranson: Boarding5 min · PPG
  3. P1 6:13VANErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 6:13VANErik Gudbranson: Game misconduct10 min
  5. P1 6:13BOSTim Schaller: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 12:04VANMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min
  7. P1 13:49BOSAnders Bjork: Tripping2 min
  8. P1 19:18BOSKevan Miller: Fighting5 min
  9. P1 19:18VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 3:01BOSSean Kuraly: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 6:04VANMichael Del Zotto: Elbowing2 min
  12. P2 15:22BOSKenny Agostino: Slashing2 min · PPG
  13. P2 0:00BOSCharlie McAvoy: Slashing2 min
  14. P3 7:50BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
  15. P3 11:09VANAlexander Burmistrov: Interference2 min · PPG
  16. P3 15:26VANDerek Dorsett: Cross checking2 min
  17. P3 15:26VANDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
46% to win54% to win
← VAN attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Nash
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANBOS
29Shots on goal35
2.5Expected goals5.3
56Shot attempts64
32Faceoffs won32
6Power plays8
43Penalty minutes22
22Hits21
11Blocked shots15
8Giveaways5
11Takeaways15

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestBaertschi – Horvat – Boeser6:26

    xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0

  2. Sedin – Sedin – Virtanen3:45

    xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

  3. Dorsett – Sutter – Burmistrov2:54

    xG 0.04–0.05 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  4. Dorsett – Sutter – Virtanen2:05

    xG 0.19–0.19 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. Hutton – Stecher4:00

    xG 0.50–0.47 (52%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0

  2. Del Zotto – Tanev10:31

    xG 0.56–0.64 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1

  3. Tanev – Hutton3:25

    xG 0.10–0.24 (30%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestBergeron – Marchand – Bjork7:41

    xG 1.23–0.20 (86%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0

  2. Kuraly – Schaller – Vatrano2:47

    xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  3. Backes – Nash – Agostino5:24

    xG 0.07–0.11 (37%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1

  4. Krejci – Pastrnak – DeBrusk4:15

    xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestChara – McAvoy7:50

    xG 0.67–0.12 (85%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0

  2. Miller – Carlo2:30

    xG 0.27–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0

  3. Chara – Carlo7:22

    xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 5.3 xGVAN 2.5 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 76/100 · #329 of 1271 this seasonSwing 1.01 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 39% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 87% of the time.

BOS winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).