Thu, Oct 19, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 4, New York Rangers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 213 | 110 | 013 | 02 | 2 | 438 |
| NYR | 112 | 012 | 213 | 04 | 1 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:40NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Ryan Pulock, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 5:02NYRDavid DesharnaisAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Marc Staal · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 6:06NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 1:15NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Calvin de Haan, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 3:29NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 14:06NYRKevin HayesAssists: Jesper Fast, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
- 2. NYI Jordan Eberle scored
- 3. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 4. NYI John Tavares scored
- 5. NYR David Desharnais stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:30NYRChris Kreider: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:39NYRJimmy Vesey: Interference2 min
- P2 13:06NYIAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
- OT 3:41NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Clutterbuck – Cizikas10:11
xG 0.93–0.50 (65%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee2:15
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bailey – Barzal9:31
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Eberle – Tavares – Lee11:29
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Pelech14:44
xG 0.81–0.30 (73%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Hickey – Mayfield12:21
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Hickey – Pulock2:24
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Zibanejad – Buchnevich2:29
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Nash – Zuccarello – Zibanejad11:34
xG 0.65–0.59 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Hayes – Fast – Vesey13:22
xG 0.38–0.36 (52%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Kreider – Miller12:58
xG 0.53–0.64 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Shattenkirk17:16
xG 1.05–0.56 (65%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo5:26
xG 0.51–0.09 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Smith – McDonagh5:29
xG 0.14–0.18 (43%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).