Thu, Oct 19, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 5, Ottawa Senators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 216 | 014 | 215 | 11 | 546 |
| OTT | 114 | 310 | 09 | 00 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:30NJDNico HischierAssists: Drew Stafford, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 2:57OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 4:21NJDNico HischierAssists: Taylor Hall, John Moore · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 5:07OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 7:15OTTAlexandre BurrowsPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–3
- P2 15:49OTTTom PyattAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 4:03NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 15:05NJDMarcus JohanssonAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–4
- OT 1:20NJDJohn MooreGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.11 xG5–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:51NJDDalton Prout: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:27OTTMike Hoffman: Interference2 min
- P1 16:00OTTJohnny Oduya: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:18NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:03NJDDamon Severson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:11NJDMiles Wood: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:11OTTAlexandre Burrows: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:21NJDDalton Prout: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:34OTTDion Phaneuf: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 4:42OTTDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:22NJDMarcus Johansson: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:19NJDSteven Santini: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stafford won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Hall – Hischier11:52
xG 0.94–0.63 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 2–2
- Henrique – Johansson – Palmieri10:30
xG 0.67–0.61 (53%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Coleman – Noesen – Wood7:53
xG 0.15–0.09 (61%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Gibbons – Zacha – Bratt6:37
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson13:33
xG 1.10–0.32 (77%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Prout – Butcher6:56
xG 0.45–0.44 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Moore – Severson2:21
xG 0.01–0.02 (25%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Pyatt – Pageau2:08
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Burrows – Thompson – Brown2:41
xG 0.06–0.01 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Burrows – Turris – Dzingel2:58
xG 0.15–0.26 (36%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Dzingel5:11
xG 0.04–0.41 (8%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Karlsson12:50
xG 1.11–0.73 (60%)attempts 12–16goals 2–1
- Claesson – Ceci6:38
xG 0.15–0.38 (28%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Wideman2:08
xG 0.02–0.26 (9%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).