Thu, Oct 19, 2017·United Center, Chicago
Edmonton Oilers 2, Chicago Blackhawks 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 014 | 014 | 15 | 242 |
| CHI | 17 | 010 | 011 | 03 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:33CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jan Rutta, Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 17:18EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Connor McDavid, Kailer Yamamoto · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- OT 4:44EDMMark LetestuPPGWGAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:31EDMCam Talbot: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P2 0:09EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:13EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:59EDMZack Kassian: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:09CHIBrent Seabrook: Interference2 min
- P3 3:30EDMIiro Pakarinen: Boarding2 min
- OT 3:45CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – McDavid – Yamamoto13:54
xG 1.46–0.35 (81%)attempts 28–13goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Malone – Kassian7:38
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Lucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Strome9:28
xG 0.20–0.11 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Letestu – Pakarinen – Slepyshev8:10
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom16:50
xG 0.86–0.42 (67%)attempts 21–17goals 1–1
- Gryba – Auvitu12:51
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Russell – Nurse13:42
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Kane – Hartman – Schmaltz13:44
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Bouma – Hayden – Kero2:26
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Sharp – Anisimov – DeBrincat4:29
xG 0.16–0.17 (50%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Bouma – Hayden4:57
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Murphy – Oesterle11:31
xG 0.18–0.16 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Forsling – Rutta14:13
xG 0.45–0.48 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook15:22
xG 0.24–0.87 (22%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).