Fri, Oct 20, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vancouver Canucks 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 117 | 220 | 14 | 441 |
| BUF | 25 | 08 | 09 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:00BUFJustin BaileyAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Kyle Okposo · Backhand, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 11:56VANMarkus GranlundAssists: Derek Dorsett, Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
- P1 17:20BUFJack EichelAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 5:52VANDerek DorsettSHAssists: Brandon Sutter, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 8:10VANDaniel SedinGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Jake Virtanen · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–2
- P3 19:38VANDerek DorsettENAssists: Markus Granlund, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.63 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:05VANBrock Boeser: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P2 0:47BUFMatt Tennyson: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:34VANBrock Boeser: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:10BUFSeth Griffith: Delaying game bench2 min
- P2 10:51BUFJustin Bailey: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:20BUFVictor Antipin: Interference2 min
- P3 9:16VANAlexander Burmistrov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Virtanen7:16
xG 0.73–0.11 (87%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser9:29
xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Sutter – Granlund10:53
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Vanek – Gagner – Burmistrov7:43
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Pouliot10:03
xG 0.71–0.24 (74%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hutton15:14
xG 0.83–0.50 (63%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Del Zotto – Stecher15:43
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Kane – Eichel11:43
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Larsson – Griffith3:24
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Griffith – Reinhart3:03
xG 0.01–0.02 (33%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Bailey – Reinhart6:45
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Ristolainen2:18
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen2:49
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Tennyson – McCabe2:49
xG 0.00–0.01 (28%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).