Fri, Oct 20, 2017·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Washington Capitals 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 014 | 111 | 214 | 12 | 441 |
| DET | 013 | 18 | 215 | 01 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:31DETDarren HelmSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 19:10WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 1:25WSHJay BeagleSHAssists: Alex Chiasson, Taylor Chorney · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 5:24DETTomas TatarAssists: Dylan Larkin, Mike Green · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 12:45DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 18:59WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–3
- OT 1:56WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Slap, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:05WSHDevante Smith-Pelly: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:51DETRiley Sheahan: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:35WSHMadison Bowey: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:34DETDavid Booth: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:51DETMartin Frk: Interference2 min
- P2 19:32WSHBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:04WSHBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:28WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 17:17DETDylan Larkin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- OT 1:08DETTrevor Daley: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Vrana9:41
xG 1.12–0.21 (84%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Wilson7:54
xG 0.18–0.33 (36%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky7:53
xG 0.23–0.38 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Beagle – Chiasson – Smith-Pelly5:13
xG 0.05–0.29 (15%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson6:45
xG 0.59–0.13 (82%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Chorney – Orlov4:37
xG 0.42–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Orlov – Bowey5:08
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Sheahan – Glendening3:16
xG 0.12–0.07 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Frk5:29
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha9:24
xG 0.19–0.51 (27%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Tatar – Larkin8:52
xG 0.30–0.82 (27%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green13:18
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Jensen – Ouellet8:53
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Daley – Ericsson14:35
xG 0.62–0.78 (44%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).