Fri, Oct 20, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 322 | 115 | 448 |
| FLA | 211 | 013 | 17 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15FLAJamie McGinnAssists: Radim Vrbata, Vincent Trocheck · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 5:49FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Keith Yandle, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 2:14PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 2:41PITCarter RowneyAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 11:12PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 9:19FLAMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Mark Pysyk, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 17:07PITConor ShearyPPGWGAssists: Olli Maatta, Justin Schultz · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:07PITIan Cole: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:30PITPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:07FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:37FLAAlexander Petrovic: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:56FLADerek MacKenzie: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:36FLARadim Vrbata: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Hagelin10:21
xG 0.76–0.08 (90%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Rust12:38
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Reaves – Kuhnhackl – Rowney8:25
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Sheary2:27
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Maatta11:54
xG 1.00–0.18 (85%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin14:48
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
- Cole – Schultz5:05
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov15:17
xG 0.89–0.21 (81%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Bjugstad – McCann – Tippett6:21
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley5:22
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Vrbata – McGinn – Trocheck11:55
xG 0.35–0.95 (27%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Pysyk – Weegar12:36
xG 0.61–0.56 (52%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
- Petrovic – Matheson15:17
xG 0.21–0.42 (33%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad17:59
xG 0.70–1.07 (39%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).