Fri, Oct 20, 2017·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 3, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 113 | 210 | 04 | 327 |
| WPG | 210 | 111 | 19 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:07WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 9:49WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Toby Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 19:06MINChris StewartAssists: Jason Zucker · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 10:51MINMikko KoivuAssists: Jason Zucker, Devan Dubnyk · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 15:39MINMarcus FolignoPPAssists: Mike Reilly · Deflected, 0.25 xG3–2
- P2 19:27WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 13:14WPGBlake WheelerGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:17MINMikko Koivu: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:30WPGDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:03MINKyle Quincey: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:54MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Mitchell – Eriksson Ek10:26
xG 0.64–0.12 (84%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Cullen – Ennis – Ferraro2:16
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Foligno – Kunin9:28
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Koivu – Stewart – Zucker12:55
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:23
xG 0.74–0.16 (82%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba18:28
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 1–2
- Quincey – Reilly12:53
xG 0.35–0.67 (34%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor15:52
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Matthias – Petan – Lemieux7:04
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine14:17
xG 0.24–0.26 (49%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Armia – Copp – Tanev10:10
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien19:08
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Trouba – Morrissey15:27
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 1–2
- Myers – Chiarot14:51
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).