Fri, Oct 20, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Montréal Canadiens 2, Anaheim Ducks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 230 | 014 | 251 |
| ANA | 321 | 010 | 314 | 645 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:46ANADennis RasmussenAssists: Jaycob Megna, Kevin Bieksa · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 3:46ANADerek GrantPPAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.45 xG0–2
- P1 13:42ANAAntoine VermetteGWGAssists: Chris Wagner · Slap, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 2:47MTLPaul ByronAssists: Karl Alzner, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 17:24MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Victor Mete, Jeff Petry · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–3
- P3 5:58ANABrandon MontourAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Jakob Silfverberg · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 7:12ANADerek GrantAssists: Ondrej Kase, Nick Ritchie · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 7:35ANAChris WagnerAssists: Corey Perry, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–6
Penalties (17)
- P1 2:43MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 4:11MTLAndrew Shaw: Cross checking2 min
- P1 4:11MTLAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:11ANANick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:11ANANick Ritchie: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:25ANAAntoine Vermette: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:13ANAOndrej Kase: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P2 10:48ANAKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:02ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:40ANAKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:40ANAKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:40MTLAndrew Shaw: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:40ANAKevin Bieksa: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:40ANANick Ritchie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:14MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:26MTLJoe Morrow: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:04MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grant won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Shaw – Danault7:16
xG 0.89–0.05 (94%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Lehkonen3:25
xG 0.27–0.07 (81%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Gallagher3:04
xG 0.22–0.04 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Hudon2:50
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 2–1goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Mete15:41
xG 1.47–0.68 (68%)attempts 25–21goals 0–2
- Petry – Morrow5:48
xG 0.48–0.09 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Alzner – Benn7:51
xG 0.31–0.36 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestBoll – Shaw – Rasmussen2:34
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Grant – Ritchie – Kase8:36
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Vermette – Perry – Wagner10:59
xG 0.49–0.89 (36%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell12:46
xG 0.34–0.84 (29%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Megna7:30
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Beauchemin – Bieksa3:08
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Bieksa – Megna7:08
xG 0.51–0.53 (49%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).