Sat, Oct 21, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 5, Boston Bruins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 215 | 215 | 16 | 542 |
| BOS | 213 | 212 | 06 | 00 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:16BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Tim Schaller, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 15:05BOSBrad MarchandPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 0:37BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Anders Bjork, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 8:01BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 11:22BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Riley Nash, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 16:07BUFJack EichelAssists: Marco Scandella, Justin Bailey · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–4
- P3 6:55BUFBenoit PouliotAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jake McCabe · Snap, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 17:52BUFEvander KaneAssists: Jake McCabe, Jason Pominville · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–4
- OT 2:59BUFRyan O'ReillyGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:03BUFMatt Tennyson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:43BUFEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:29BOSKenny Agostino: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:16BUFKyle Okposo: Holding2 min
- P3 15:42BOSBrandon Carlo: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schaller won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKane – Bailey – Eichel13:16
xG 0.63–0.48 (57%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Pominville – Pouliot – O'Reilly11:40
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Nolan – Larsson – Griffith7:18
xG 0.11–0.02 (82%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Moulson – Okposo – Reinhart9:48
xG 0.21–0.40 (34%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Ristolainen20:00
xG 0.90–0.24 (79%)attempts 27–17goals 1–0
- Tennyson – McCabe15:15
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 17–9goals 2–2
- McCabe – Antipin3:48
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBeleskey – Kuraly – Vatrano7:23
xG 0.42–0.07 (86%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Backes – Nash – Agostino10:46
xG 0.29–0.21 (57%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Schaller – Pastrnak3:02
xG 0.08–0.13 (36%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Schaller – Pastrnak – DeBrusk8:16
xG 0.06–0.29 (18%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPostma – O'Gara9:58
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Chara – McAvoy19:43
xG 0.51–0.48 (51%)attempts 20–16goals 1–0
- Krug – Carlo15:21
xG 0.45–0.57 (44%)attempts 12–18goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).