Sat, Oct 21, 2017·Capital One Arena, Washington
Florida Panthers 4, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 27 | 112 | 14 | 423 |
| WSH | 016 | 113 | 013 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26FLAConnor BrickleyAssists: Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 19:30FLAEvgenii DadonovPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 8:58FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Evgenii Dadonov · Slap, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 15:23WSHChristian DjoosAssists: Devante Smith-Pelly, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 18:44FLAAleksander BarkovENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.52 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:41FLAMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:33WSHLars Eller: Holding2 min
- P1 18:34WSHMadison Bowey: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:50WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:57WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:12WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:12FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
- P2 12:20WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:09FLAIan McCoshen: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:40FLAVincent Trocheck: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBrickley – Bjugstad – McCann5:40
xG 0.37–0.25 (59%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov13:26
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Brickley – Bjugstad2:31
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – Trocheck10:43
xG 0.45–0.62 (42%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Weegar – McCoshen10:15
xG 0.31–0.34 (47%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
- Yandle – Ekblad18:05
xG 0.54–0.65 (45%)attempts 10–22goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson14:35
xG 0.44–0.66 (40%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Chiasson – Smith-Pelly4:08
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Wilson11:36
xG 0.30–0.16 (64%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Connolly2:41
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Vrana9:10
xG 0.46–0.51 (47%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Bowey5:27
xG 0.52–0.03 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson8:13
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Orpik – Bowey5:53
xG 0.30–0.01 (95%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).