Sat, Oct 21, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 4, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 113 | 311 | 432 |
| CGY | 018 | 18 | 111 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:49MINChris StewartPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–0
- P2 19:32CGYSean MonahanAssists: Troy Brouwer, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 0:43CGYKris VersteegPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–2
- P3 10:33MINRyan SuterAssists: Eric Staal, Luke Kunin · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 12:08MINJared SpurgeonGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 18:57MINDaniel WinnikENAssists: Luke Kunin · Backhand, 0.60 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:47MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:53CGYDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:21MINGustav Olofsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:14MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:50CGYMichael Stone: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:33CGYTroy Brouwer: Interference2 min
- P2 19:32MINChris Stewart: Delaying game bench2 min · PPG
- P3 0:23MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:23MINKyle Quincey: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Cullen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Stewart – Zucker10:13
xG 0.66–0.24 (73%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Foligno – Kunin8:27
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Cullen – Winnik – Eriksson Ek9:33
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Ennis – Mitchell6:35
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Olofsson10:31
xG 0.89–0.16 (85%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Quincey – Dumba10:33
xG 0.33–0.29 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:43
xG 0.31–0.73 (30%)attempts 14–25goals 2–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Brouwer – Hamilton6:15
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Lazar – Bennett2:41
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan7:23
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Ferland – Lazar – Bennett2:33
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamonic – Brodie17:19
xG 0.50–0.55 (48%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
- Stone – Kulak8:25
xG 0.14–0.29 (32%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Giordano – Hamilton13:49
xG 0.52–0.79 (39%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).