Sat, Oct 21, 2017·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
St. Louis Blues 2, Vegas Golden Knights 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 118 | 011 | 115 | 05 | 249 |
| VGK | 04 | 28 | 07 | 13 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:51STLMagnus PaajarviAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 13:54VGKReilly SmithPPAssists: Colin Miller, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 17:27VGKColin MillerPPAssists: Brad Hunt, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 14:52STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 4:36VGKWilliam KarlssonGWGAssists: Reilly Smith, Brad Hunt · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:46STLIvan Barbashev: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:42VGKColin Miller: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:37VGKWilliam Carrier: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:37STLScottie Upshall: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:37VGKWilliam Carrier: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:13VGKVadim Shipachyov: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:32VGKDeryk Engelland: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:30STLScottie Upshall: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:49STLMagnus Paajarvi: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Brodziak – Sundqvist7:57
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz5:53
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Steen – Stastny – Sobotka6:17
xG 0.32–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Tarasenko6:27
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson8:55
xG 0.50–0.15 (76%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Parayko – Dunn8:14
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Bortuzzo3:10
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Carrier – Bellemare – Nosek8:21
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Lindberg – Karlsson12:57
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Leipsic – Tuch – Shipachyov5:36
xG 0.02–0.36 (6%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Neal – Perron – Eakin14:08
xG 0.35–0.92 (28%)attempts 11–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – McNabb14:37
xG 0.34–0.26 (56%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Schmidt13:02
xG 0.24–0.52 (31%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
- Miller – Hunt11:41
xG 0.27–0.70 (27%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).