Sun, Oct 22, 2017·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Vancouver Canucks 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 111 | 318 | 08 | 437 |
| DET | 19 | 06 | 06 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:34VANSven BaertschiAssists: Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 18:28DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Mike Green · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:30VANDerek DorsettGWGAssists: Bo Horvat, Derrick Pouliot · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 13:39VANSven BaertschiAssists: Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 19:35VANJake VirtanenAssists: Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 5:18DETMike Green: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:19DETTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:33VANThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBaertschi – Horvat – Boeser12:21
xG 0.96–0.33 (74%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Virtanen9:54
xG 0.81–0.24 (77%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Dorsett – Sutter – Granlund12:57
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Vanek – Gagner – Burmistrov10:54
xG 0.15–0.54 (21%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hutton15:22
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Tanev3:12
xG 0.59–0.13 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 2–0
- Del Zotto – Stecher11:31
xG 0.65–0.41 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha11:25
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Tatar2:57
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Frk – Mantha – Larkin2:08
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist2:03
xG 0.02–0.33 (7%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Jensen – Ouellet10:22
xG 0.27–0.35 (44%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Daley – Ericsson12:58
xG 0.47–0.80 (37%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Green17:02
xG 0.32–0.80 (28%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).