Mon, Oct 23, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
San Jose Sharks 4, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 28 | 19 | 17 | 424 |
| NYR | 016 | 08 | 110 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Brent Burns, Mikkel Boedker · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 12:45SJSTim HeedGWGAssists: Tomas Hertl, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 19:22SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 2:51SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Logan Couture · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–0
- P3 4:23NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:31SJSBarclay Goodrow: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:16SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:52SJSMikkel Boedker: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:27SJSTomas Hertl: Holding2 min
- P2 12:39SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:53SJSTomas Hertl: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:27NYRJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Donskoi3:46
xG 0.33–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson4:35
xG 0.11–0.04 (73%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Couture – Boedker – Hertl2:58
xG 0.10–0.09 (55%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Boedker – Donskoi – Tierney2:32
xG 0.04–0.03 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Heed11:09
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Burns – Ryan14:18
xG 0.29–0.57 (34%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Braun – Dillon2:24
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Zuccarello – Miller4:09
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hayes – Fast – Vesey12:56
xG 0.51–0.20 (71%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Nash – Zuccarello – Zibanejad6:47
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich3:27
xG 0.30–0.13 (69%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Skjei9:15
xG 0.63–0.10 (86%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Staal – Shattenkirk10:59
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 14–5goals 1–2
- McDonagh – DeAngelo2:59
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).