Tue, Oct 24, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 0, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 010 | 012 | 032 |
| BUF | 012 | 113 | 07 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:45BUFBenoit PouliotGWGAssists: Victor Antipin, Taylor Fedun · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG0–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:03DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:47DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:04BUFVictor Antipin: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:43DETDylan Larkin: Interference2 min
- P3 0:56DETAnthony Mantha: Holding2 min
- P3 1:32BUFJack Eichel: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:57BUFRyan O'Reilly: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:57DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFrk – Mantha – Larkin2:40
xG 0.48–0.08 (86%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Frk – Larkin2:56
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Helm – Wilson – Glendening2:12
xG 0.18–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar4:51
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Ericsson11:14
xG 0.71–0.30 (70%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green12:08
xG 0.49–0.26 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Jensen – Ouellet5:51
xG 0.47–0.33 (58%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Nolan – Bailey – Reinhart9:10
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Moulson – Larsson – Griffith5:39
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Pouliot – O'Reilly12:06
xG 0.53–0.64 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Okposo – Kane – Eichel13:11
xG 0.21–0.80 (20%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Ristolainen19:25
xG 0.55–0.42 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Fedun – Antipin8:13
xG 0.34–0.33 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Tennyson – McCabe13:47
xG 0.20–1.23 (14%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).