Tue, Oct 24, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Anaheim Ducks 6, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 16 | 312 | 27 | 625 |
| PHI | 112 | 013 | 18 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:51PHISean CouturierAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 18:22ANAOndrej KaseAssists: Derek Grant · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 5:40ANABrandon MontourAssists: Kalle Kossila, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 10:03ANANick RitchiePPGWGAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Hampus Lindholm · Backhand, 0.38 xG3–1
- P2 18:17ANARickard RakellAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Snap, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 3:59ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–1
- P3 11:54PHISean CouturierAssists: Travis Sanheim, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.19 xG5–2
- P3 15:49ANAOndrej KaseUnassisted · Backhand, 0.35 xG6–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:57ANANick Ritchie: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P1 3:47PHIIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:54PHIRadko Gudas: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 14:54ANAKevin Bieksa: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:58ANAKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:58PHIRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:40PHIWayne Simmonds: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:40PHIWayne Simmonds: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:40ANARyan Getzlaf: Holding2 min
- P2 9:06PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:30ANANick Ritchie: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:19ANAAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:10ANAKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:55ANARickard Rakell: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:32ANAOndrej Kase: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:49PHIIvan Provorov: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell14:21
xG 0.50–0.24 (67%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Grant – Ritchie – Kase7:21
xG 0.48–0.37 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Wagner – Shaw – Kossila5:19
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Vermette – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:38
xG 0.12–0.39 (23%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Montour11:46
xG 0.33–0.32 (50%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- Manson – Lindholm12:17
xG 0.33–0.46 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Bieksa – Megna13:05
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier11:23
xG 0.78–0.13 (85%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Weise – Laughton – Raffl6:03
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal7:17
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Lehtera – Konecny – Patrick4:11
xG 0.07–0.37 (16%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Sanheim4:56
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Provorov2:17
xG 0.17–0.09 (67%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas7:12
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).