Tue, Oct 24, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 1, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 16 | 010 | 127 |
| MTL | 011 | 315 | 211 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:20FLAKeith YandleAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 16:44MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 18:02MTLShea WeberPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Andrew Shaw · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 18:19MTLBrendan GallagherUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 9:11MTLShea WeberAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 11:06MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Phillip Danault, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 4:13MTLMichael McCarron: Interference2 min
- P2 7:07FLAMike Matheson: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:09FLAKeith Yandle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:44FLARadim Vrbata: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:20FLAMike Matheson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:39MTLTomas Plekanec: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov11:29
xG 0.84–0.50 (62%)attempts 14–15goals 1–2
- Brickley – Bjugstad – Malgin5:13
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Haley – Tippett4:40
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – Trocheck7:57
xG 0.05–0.53 (9%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad16:36
xG 0.61–0.24 (72%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Weegar – McCoshen13:17
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson15:08
xG 0.32–0.60 (35%)attempts 6–21goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Lehkonen – Drouin9:17
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 18–4goals 1–0
- Galchenyuk – McCarron – Scherbak9:23
xG 0.18–0.13 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Hudon2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Hudon10:14
xG 0.13–0.35 (28%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Davidson14:40
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Weber – Mete14:25
xG 0.71–0.69 (51%)attempts 24–13goals 2–1
- Alzner – Benn15:09
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).