Tue, Oct 24, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Dallas Stars 3, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 113 | 114 | 337 |
| COL | 111 | 315 | 17 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:03DALJamie BennAssists: John Klingberg, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 13:45COLMatt NietoAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 2:14COLMatt NietoAssists: Carl Soderberg, Blake Comeau · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 2:44DALBrett RitchieAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 4:04COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 19:50COLMark BarberioGWGAssists: Tyson Barrie, Blake Comeau · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 10:12DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 19:56COLMatt NietoENAssists: Blake Comeau, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:53DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:09COLMatt Duchene: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:43DALAlexander Radulov: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:17COLAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 8:48DALBrett Ritchie: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Ritchie10:41
xG 1.23–0.17 (88%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin2:53
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Radulov – Shore – Janmark9:35
xG 0.50–0.44 (53%)attempts 14–7goals 0–2
- Ritchie – Shore – Janmark2:24
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Klingberg16:06
xG 1.51–0.34 (82%)attempts 30–8goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell3:37
xG 0.24–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 2–0
- Lindell – Honka7:04
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Landeskog – Yakupov8:52
xG 0.61–0.23 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto12:18
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Duchene – Bourque – Landeskog2:07
xG 0.06–0.23 (20%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bourque – Kerfoot – Greer7:01
xG 0.19–0.45 (29%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Bigras9:17
xG 0.39–0.25 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Johnson – Barberio3:10
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Barrie – Bigras3:27
xG 0.03–0.07 (31%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).