Thu, Oct 26, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Winnipeg Jets 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 110 | 012 | 09 | 00 | 131 |
| PIT | 111 | 015 | 09 | 11 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:25PITConor ShearyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 9:26WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- OT 1:07PITPhil KesselGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:15WPGToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:24PITPatric Hornqvist: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:10WPGJosh Morrissey: Delaying game2 min
- P2 10:08WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:17PITRyan Reaves: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:17WPGDustin Byfuglien: Holding2 min
- P3 0:32PITJake Guentzel: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:40WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Hendricks – Armia – Lemieux4:17
xG 0.03–0.02 (59%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine11:46
xG 0.54–0.55 (50%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- Matthias – Copp – Tanev6:34
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor15:18
xG 0.50–0.61 (45%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey14:37
xG 0.71–0.63 (53%)attempts 20–20goals 1–0
- Myers – Kulikov9:28
xG 0.37–0.31 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Enstrom – Byfuglien16:30
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Rust7:36
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Kuhnhackl6:11
xG 0.22–0.04 (84%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Sheary12:36
xG 0.79–0.70 (53%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Hagelin – Sheahan8:51
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Trotman9:22
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Maatta – Ruhwedel13:05
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Letang – Cole2:51
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).