Thu, Oct 26, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Los Angeles Kings 4, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 28 | 110 | 110 | 428 |
| MTL | 016 | 013 | 011 | 040 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:59LAKAdrian KempeGWGAssists: Derek Forbort · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 19:10LAKTyler ToffoliUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 14:35LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 3:58LAKKurtis MacDermidAssists: Drew Doughty, Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:51LAKAndy Andreoff: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:35LAKDerek Forbort: Interference2 min
- P2 3:12LAKDustin Brown: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:56LAKMichael Amadio: Interference2 min
- P2 13:46MTLJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P3 5:32LAKNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Laich – Lewis6:16
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Dowd – Andreoff – Amadio3:59
xG 0.12–0.16 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo9:00
xG 0.04–0.41 (9%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Pearson – Kempe6:45
xG 0.15–0.76 (17%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Muzzin – Fantenberg4:26
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort8:21
xG 0.29–0.52 (35%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Forbort – Fantenberg9:51
xG 0.25–0.52 (32%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Lehkonen – Drouin9:13
xG 0.85–0.12 (88%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Shaw – Danault12:05
xG 0.59–0.17 (78%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Hudon8:08
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – McCarron – Scherbak3:59
xG 0.08–0.05 (63%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Davidson12:22
xG 0.85–0.20 (81%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Alzner – Benn15:10
xG 0.35–0.22 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Weber – Davidson2:52
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).