Thu, Oct 26, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Ottawa Senators 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 014 | 211 | 215 | 440 |
| OTT | 312 | 19 | 17 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:31OTTDion PhaneufPPAssists: Filip Chlapik, Christopher DiDomenico · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 9:50OTTMark BorowieckiAssists: Mike Hoffman, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 13:28OTTJean-Gabriel PageauSHAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 14:30PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Sean Couturier, Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 15:23PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 17:37OTTMark StoneAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 10:33OTTTom PyattGWGAssists: Nate Thompson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 15:18PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 18:14PHISean CouturierAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Jakub Voracek · Deflected, 0.09 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:36PHIBrandon Manning: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:56OTTDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:27OTTMark Borowiecki: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:45PHIRadko Gudas: Charging5 min
- P3 11:45OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:45PHIRadko Gudas: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 12:18PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:36OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier13:00
xG 0.90–0.27 (77%)attempts 20–8goals 1–2
- Laughton – Leier – Raffl9:30
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Read – Konecny8:46
xG 0.09–0.24 (26%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal10:34
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Provorov15:12
xG 1.04–0.32 (76%)attempts 18–9goals 1–2
- Gudas – Sanheim6:20
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Manning – Hagg8:33
xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Stone – Dzingel9:53
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Burrows – Thompson – DiDomenico6:08
xG 0.12–0.11 (50%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Thompson – McCormick – Chlapik3:24
xG 0.01–0.06 (13%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau11:09
xG 0.21–1.11 (16%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Karlsson13:06
xG 0.58–0.13 (82%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Claesson6:45
xG 0.23–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman2:06
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).