Thu, Oct 26, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 010 | 112 | 231 |
| TBL | 114 | 012 | 212 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:18DETFrans NielsenSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:33TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 6:22TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 17:04TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Yanni Gourde, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 18:11DETFrans NielsenPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:19DETMike Green: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:57TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:59DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:24DETMartin Frk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 2:53TBLJT Brown: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:56DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P2 12:20DETAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:20TBLMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:25DETGustav Nyquist: Interference2 min
- P3 4:52DETFrans Nielsen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:24TBLChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:36TBLMikhail Sergachev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:37TBLNikita Kucherov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Tatar7:54
xG 0.08–0.08 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Wilson – Glendening – Frk2:13
xG 0.02–0.06 (20%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Athanasiou6:03
xG 0.19–0.30 (38%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Mantha2:14
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jensen – Ouellet5:38
xG 0.25–0.23 (53%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Jensen2:30
xG 0.02–0.01 (52%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Daley – Green2:14
xG 0.01–0.04 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Gourde – Point7:57
xG 0.44–0.03 (93%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov9:52
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Point2:35
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Brown8:57
xG 0.16–0.25 (38%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Girardi8:10
xG 0.50–0.08 (86%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Hedman – Dotchin10:09
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman2:10
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).