Thu, Oct 26, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Anaheim Ducks 3, Florida Panthers 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 012 | 213 | 334 |
| FLA | 38 | 39 | 25 | 822 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04FLARadim VrbataAssists: Connor Brickley, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 4:23FLAOwen TippettAssists: Jamie McGinn, Mike Matheson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 6:24ANAKalle KossilaAssists: Logan Shaw, Chris Wagner · Slap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 17:24FLARadim VrbataPPAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Snap, 0.22 xG1–3
- P2 4:03FLAVincent TrocheckGWGAssists: Connor Brickley, Alexander Petrovic · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–4
- P2 8:27FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.08 xG1–5
- P2 15:37FLAAleksander BarkovSHAssists: Derek MacKenzie · Slap, 0.27 xG1–6
- P3 2:18ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.45 xG2–6
- P3 8:39FLARadim VrbataAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.42 xG2–7
- P3 10:46ANALogan ShawAssists: Chris Wagner, Derek Grant · Slap, 0.15 xG3–7
- P3 17:19FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.11 xG3–8
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:29FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:53ANAJosh Manson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:41ANAJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:41FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:07FLAMicheal Haley: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:59FLAIan McCoshen: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:47ANAChris Wagner: Holding2 min
- P3 11:24ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestWagner – Shaw – Kossila3:52
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Grant – Wagner – Shaw4:03
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Grant – Ritchie – Kase5:34
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–2
- Ritchie – Kase – Kossila5:39
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Lindholm5:54
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Manson – Megna8:48
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Manson – Lindholm6:08
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Brickley – Trocheck7:32
xG 0.49–0.11 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov11:49
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- McGinn – Bjugstad – Malgin8:45
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Haley – Tippett6:20
xG 0.01–0.37 (3%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad15:12
xG 0.87–0.66 (57%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
- Pysyk – McCoshen15:22
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Matheson14:46
xG 0.23–0.40 (36%)attempts 4–10goals 3–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).