Thu, Oct 26, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Islanders 4, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 19 | 213 | 433 |
| MIN | 316 | 16 | 211 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:56MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 6:09MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 7:26MINEric StaalSHAssists: Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–3
- P1 10:49NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Josh Bailey · Deflected, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 7:17MINLuke KuninSHAssists: Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P2 18:31NYINick LeddyAssists: Mathew Barzal, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 4:14MINZack MitchellGWGAssists: Daniel Winnik, Jared Spurgeon · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–5
- P3 6:11MINJonas BrodinAssists: Marcus Foligno, Joel Eriksson Ek · Slap, 0.02 xG2–6
- P3 10:09NYIAnders LeeAssists: Nick Leddy, Josh Bailey · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–6
- P3 19:56NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:31NYIJohnny Boychuk: Hooking2 min
- P1 1:51NYIThomas Hickey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:35MINKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P1 14:29MINDaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:04MINMathew Dumba: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:31NYIScott Mayfield: Delaying game2 min
- P2 6:30MINTyler Ennis: Holding2 min
- P3 14:17MINMatt Cullen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas6:01
xG 0.64–0.02 (98%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ladd – Nelson6:42
xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier4:48
xG 0.21–0.38 (35%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Eberle – Tavares – Lee7:11
xG 0.11–0.39 (22%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Pelech8:51
xG 0.54–0.15 (79%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy14:07
xG 0.74–0.68 (52%)attempts 21–11goals 2–0
- Hickey – Mayfield12:31
xG 0.36–0.68 (35%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Granlund11:28
xG 1.08–0.14 (89%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Stewart – Foligno – Eriksson Ek9:34
xG 0.49–0.40 (56%)attempts 6–13goals 2–0
- Staal – Ennis – Kunin7:47
xG 0.16–0.20 (43%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Winnik – Mitchell8:03
xG 0.28–0.84 (25%)attempts 3–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon15:19
xG 1.28–0.36 (78%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
- Brodin – Dumba14:10
xG 0.66–0.96 (41%)attempts 10–19goals 2–0
- Quincey – Reilly11:48
xG 0.04–0.36 (10%)attempts 3–19goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).