Thu, Oct 26, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Dallas Stars 4, Edmonton Oilers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 112 | 214 | 16 | 432 |
| EDM | 214 | 110 | 211 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:31EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan Strome, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 11:34DALJamie BennAssists: Alexander Radulov, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 19:35EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 2:58DALAlexander RadulovPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Devin Shore · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 13:46EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Kris Russell, Milan Lucic · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 16:19DALJamie BennPPAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.46 xG3–3
- P3 10:25DALEsa LindellPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Dan Hamhuis · Snap, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 12:16EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 17:33EDMMatt BenningGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse · Slap, 0.04 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:56DALMarc Methot: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:22EDMRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:53EDMMark Letestu: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:55EDMEric Gryba: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 13:55DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:42EDMDrake Caggiula: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:34DALMartin Hanzal: Interference2 min
- P3 3:03EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:09DALTyler Seguin: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:37EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Shore – Janmark5:49
xG 0.58–0.07 (90%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin9:45
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Hanzal – Ritchie – Elie3:44
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Faksa – Elie4:09
xG 0.06–0.13 (30%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Lindell3:09
xG 0.07–0.01 (89%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Methot – Klingberg15:42
xG 0.55–0.58 (49%)attempts 21–21goals 1–2
- Oleksiak – Lindell7:34
xG 0.57–0.82 (41%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Khaira – Slepyshev6:51
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Caggiula3:59
xG 0.31–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Kassian – Strome – Caggiula4:24
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lucic – Letestu – Nugent-Hopkins5:33
xG 0.16–0.14 (52%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom15:51
xG 0.79–0.57 (58%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
- Russell – Benning8:56
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Russell – Nurse2:34
xG 0.20–0.04 (85%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).