Thu, Oct 26, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Washington Capitals 2, Vancouver Canucks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 04 | 18 | 115 | 227 |
| VAN | 315 | 29 | 16 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:53VANThomas VanekAssists: Sam Gagner, Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 15:03VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Sven Baertschi, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P1 18:43VANMarkus GranlundGWGAssists: Derek Dorsett · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 9:41VANSven BaertschiPPAssists: Derrick Pouliot, Brock Boeser · Deflected, 0.22 xG0–4
- P2 15:00VANDerek DorsettAssists: Brandon Sutter, Chris Tanev · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–5
- P2 15:17WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–5
- P3 10:29VANSven BaertschiPPAssists: Bo Horvat, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–6
- P3 17:52WSHChandler StephensonAssists: Jay Beagle, Madison Bowey · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:39WSHChristian Djoos: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:38WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:16WSHTaylor Chorney: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:16VANSam Gagner: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:22VANErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:22WSHTom Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:22WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 8:22WSHTom Wilson: Instigator2 min
- P3 8:22WSHTom Wilson: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 11:25VANSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:56WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P3 14:38VANAlex Biega: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Chiasson – Kuznetsov9:46
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 1–2
- Oshie – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson2:17
xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Vrana2:25
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Walker4:33
xG 0.10–0.09 (51%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov3:30
xG 0.41–0.18 (69%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Orlov – Djoos5:16
xG 0.25–0.06 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Carlson – Djoos8:11
xG 0.60–0.48 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDorsett – Sutter – Granlund13:02
xG 0.78–0.58 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Virtanen7:20
xG 0.20–0.13 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser10:59
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Vanek – Gagner – Burmistrov8:15
xG 0.33–0.63 (34%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hutton13:46
xG 1.00–0.60 (62%)attempts 17–11goals 2–1
- Biega – Hutton2:48
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudbranson15:14
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).