Fri, Oct 27, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Ottawa Senators 4, New Jersey Devils 5 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 29 | 06 | 210 | 02 | 1 | 427 |
| NJD | 110 | 27 | 16 | 02 | 2 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:58OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Christopher DiDomenico, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 17:14OTTJohnny OduyaAssists: Erik Karlsson, Zack Smith · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 18:12NJDJimmy HayesAssists: Pavel Zacha, Steven Santini · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 10:52NJDAdam HenriquePPAssists: Will Butcher, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 18:07NJDBrian GibbonsAssists: Pavel Zacha, Jimmy Hayes · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 14:10NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 18:45OTTMark StoneAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mike Hoffman · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 19:23OTTChristopher DiDomenicoAssists: Derick Brassard, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.26 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NJD Taylor Hall stopped
- 2. OTT Christopher DiDomenico stopped
- 3. NJD Nico Hischier stopped
- 4. OTT Tom Pyatt scored
- 5. NJD Drew Stafford scored
- 6. OTT Erik Karlsson stopped
- 7. NJD Jesper Bratt scored
- 8. OTT Mike Hoffman stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:39OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:50OTTJack Rodewald: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min · PPG
- P2 14:11NJDNico Hischier: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:46OTTChristopher DiDomenico: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:03NJDMarcus Johansson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDiDomenico – Hoffman – Pageau9:16
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Brassard – Stone – Dzingel9:11
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Brassard – Smith – Stone2:34
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Burrows – Smith – Rodewald6:58
xG 0.08–0.05 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Ceci7:45
xG 0.31–0.12 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 0–2
- Phaneuf – Karlsson3:18
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci6:25
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Noesen – Wood9:33
xG 0.63–0.32 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Henrique – Johansson – Bratt9:43
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
- Hayes – Gibbons – Zacha10:23
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Stafford – Hall – Hischier11:39
xG 0.15–0.39 (27%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher9:06
xG 0.54–0.14 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Moore – Santini7:24
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Greene – Santini10:42
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).