Fri, Oct 27, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Winnipeg Jets 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 112 | 07 | 09 | 02 | 130 |
| CBJ | 010 | 013 | 112 | 12 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:52WPGBrandon TanevUnassisted · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–0
- P3 10:23CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Seth Jones · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- OT 2:38CBJJosh AndersonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:15CBJMarkus Nutivaara: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:38CBJZach Werenski: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:44CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:52CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Interference2 min
- P2 7:50WPGShawn Matthias: Interference2 min
- P2 10:21WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:02CBJSonny Milano: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:27WPGBryan Little: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:23WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:16CBJDavid Savard: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Foligno won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMatthias – Copp – Tanev7:46
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor11:56
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Dano – Lemieux4:57
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine9:34
xG 0.35–0.60 (36%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Kulikov8:30
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien14:45
xG 0.82–0.81 (50%)attempts 23–20goals 0–1
- Trouba – Morrissey13:13
xG 0.04–0.50 (7%)attempts 3–21goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Anderson – Panarin10:06
xG 0.67–0.32 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Wennberg – Panarin2:32
xG 0.25–0.04 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Calvert – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg5:42
xG 0.16–0.06 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner7:41
xG 0.40–0.36 (53%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Murray2:40
xG 0.23–0.07 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Murray – Nutivaara5:43
xG 0.05–0.08 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski15:04
xG 0.48–0.54 (47%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).