Sat, Oct 28, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 3, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 112 | 09 | 06 | 1 | 338 |
| FLA | 018 | 219 | 07 | 02 | 0 | 246 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:28DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 4:19FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Evgenii Dadonov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 8:23FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Aaron Ekblad · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 10:46DETGustav NyquistAssists: Jonathan Ericsson · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 2. DET Frans Nielsen stopped
- 3. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 4. DET Andreas Athanasiou stopped
- 5. FLA Radim Vrbata stopped
- 6. DET Gustav Nyquist scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:35FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 9:35FLAOwen Tippett: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P1 11:24FLAAaron Ekblad: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:24DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:27DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
- P1 18:09DETMike Green: Holding2 min
- P2 8:08DETAndreas Athanasiou: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:40DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:35DETXavier Ouellet: Holding2 min
- P3 7:28FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:56DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Helm – Glendening2:09
xG 0.76–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Mantha – Larkin10:41
xG 0.90–0.18 (83%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar8:05
xG 0.61–0.32 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Wilson – Glendening – Frk4:24
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green9:10
xG 0.70–0.12 (85%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Jensen5:29
xG 0.49–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Daley – Ericsson14:00
xG 1.25–1.01 (55%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov11:58
xG 1.55–0.26 (85%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Bjugstad – Balisy8:25
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Haley – Malgin – Tippett2:42
xG 0.00–0.52 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – Trocheck10:47
xG 0.25–0.93 (21%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – McCoshen14:28
xG 1.45–0.56 (72%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad13:32
xG 0.79–0.29 (73%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Matheson8:30
xG 0.40–0.86 (32%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).