Sat, Oct 28, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 08 | 017 | 112 | 137 |
| STL | 115 | 111 | 216 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:26STLVladimir SobotkaAssists: Colton Parayko, Paul Stastny · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 6:31STLScottie UpshallGWGAssists: Joel Edmundson, Dmitrij Jaskin · Deflected, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 1:29STLJoel EdmundsonAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 6:21CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 13:23STLKyle BrodziakAssists: Dmitrij Jaskin, Scottie Upshall · Tip-in, 0.26 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:34CBJJosh Anderson: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:30STLVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:56CBJArtemi Panarin: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:23STLVince Dunn: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:31CBJZac Dalpe: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sundqvist won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Anderson – Panarin13:13
xG 0.70–0.50 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Jenner – Dubois3:03
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner8:58
xG 0.28–0.60 (32%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Calvert – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg9:36
xG 0.76–1.18 (39%)attempts 16–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Nutivaara12:44
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski17:51
xG 0.99–1.19 (45%)attempts 19–21goals 1–1
- Johnson – Savard14:38
xG 0.45–1.45 (24%)attempts 12–21goals 0–3
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Brodziak – Jaskin9:43
xG 0.98–0.39 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 3–0
- Paajarvi – Bennett – Sundqvist7:01
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz13:21
xG 0.42–0.50 (46%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Sobotka12:03
xG 0.99–1.10 (47%)attempts 13–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko12:43
xG 1.44–0.85 (63%)attempts 18–18goals 4–1
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson2:17
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo14:20
xG 0.83–0.79 (51%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).